Ka pēhea te pānga o te huringa āhuarangi ki Te Whanganui-a-Tara?
How will climate change impact Wellington?

Changes: More hot days, fewer cold nights.

What this could mean: Changes in temperature will affect our crops and livestock and reduce frosts that kill off pests and disease. Increasing hot days will put pressure on our agricultural areas, and impact our ongoing water and energy use.

This could cause:

• more pressure on water resources for agricultural lands
• an increase in summer energy use and potential decrease in winter energy
• infrastructure damage and deterioration
• more pests and disease.

Changes: Greater intensity of rainfall events. Longer dry spells and shorter wet spells.

What this could mean: We can expect both an increase in the intensity of extreme rain events, as well as changes to seasonal patterns that will result in longer periods without rain.

This could cause:

• our stormwater systems to exceed capacity during rain events
• rock fall, slips and landslides
• potential impacts on water reserves during extended dry periods.

Changes: More flooding from rain events and coastal storm surge.

What this could mean: With heavier rain and sea level rise, flooding is expected to be more severe, and put additional strain on our pipes and roads.

This could cause:

• greater strain on our stormwater pipe network, which won't be able to drain water away after heavy rain
• greater risk to our infrastructure, including roading, rail, and utilities
• threats to our heritage buildings and locations, including maraes, cemeteries and burial sites.

Changes: Increase in extremely windy days.

What this could mean: The number of extremely windy days is projected to increase, with the southern coast and hilltop suburbs most likely to experience changes.

This could result in:

• impacts on renewable energy generation, due to wind turbines and roof-mounted solar panels dealing with extreme gusts
• damage to housing and buildings, and danger to humans due to falling trees.

Changes: Increase in sea level rise and larger storm surge.

What this could mean: Wellington has a relatively narrow tidal range, which makes it more vulnerable to even small changes in sea level rise. Coastal flooding and erosion will continue to reach further inland as sea levels rise.

Larger storm surges put pressure on:

• coastal residents in low-lying suburbs
• infrastructure and utilities
• roading, sea walls, and other assets.

Find more information about sea level rise impacts and adaptation in Wellington.

Changes: Risks to native animal and plant life, increase in exotic species.

What this could mean: New Zealand has plant and animal species found nowhere else in the world. Climate change impacts the quality and location of ecosystems, placing some of these precious species at risk.

This could impact plants and animals through:

• food and water availability
• changes in breeding habits
• risk of forest fires
• destruction of habitats
• damage to vulnerable foreshore habitats and sea life
• marine ecosystem changes including warming sea temperatures and acidification of the oceans.

Find out more about how Wellington is working to protect our natural biodiversity.

Changes: Longer dry spells and shorter wet spells

What this could mean: The impact on our future water supply could increase due to more intense drought across the region, as well as an increase in population growth.

This could result in:

• lower river flows during times of drought combined with warmer water temperature, can lead to more incidence of toxic algae
• greater strain on the region’s agriculture
• increased fire risk across the region
• the need to monitor or reduce water consumption, or encourage use of rainwater tanks.

According to the Ministry for the Environment, it is estimated that climate change related floods and droughts between 2007-2017 cost the New Zealand economy $840 million.

Given that in Wellington City, 77% of GDP comes from within the central business area, there will be impacts on the economy. At 1.4m of sea level rise - which is a likely scenario within the century on current trends - Wellington will see three key localised impacts:

• approximately $7 billion in property affected – about 10% of the city’s property value.
• approximately $1 billion of Council property would be affected.
• properties that pay around 25% of the Council’s yearly rates would be impacted.

Not only will funding streams be needed to manage the challenges posed by climate change in the short term, but the funding available to Council and governments may be harder to access in the long term, particularly in the second half of this century.

We are a part of a global economy and supply chain. As we have seen from Covid-19, what impacts the world impacts us.

Environmental changes are likely to disrupt raw material extraction, processing, manufacturing, and supply chains. All this will result in changes to the price and availability of the things we use and rely on every day.

Many of these resources come from poorer countries, which are likely to be much more severely affected by climate change disruptions.

Over time, we can expect to see big changes in the insurance market and availability as insurance companies increasingly factor in climate change risks.

Trends for Wellington already show insurance availability or higher premiums will be required in hazard-prone areas. This is likely to affect low-lying communities within high-risk areas for sea level rise and flooding in the short term.

Check out these maps for information that relates to your property:

• Flood zone map
• Sea level rise map - Greater Wellington

The Deep South Challenge has researched how "insurance retreat" could affect coastal properties around New Zealand. This information will help better inform coastal property owners’ decision-making with regard to climate change.

Find out more about house insurance and climate change.

Climate change impacts will damage our roads, railways, pipes, buildings and other public infrastructure and assets.

Protecting and rebuilding, dealing with damage, and relocating infrastructure to avoid the impacts will have a large cost.

It is likely that low-income households and already disadvantaged communities will be most affected by climate change.

Disadvantaged groups often have increased exposure to climate impacts (e.g. living closer to flood zones), and often have less access to protective economic and social factors like income to accommodate increasing living costs, retrofitting homes, and adequate insurance cover.

We need to ensure we do not leave people behind, especially the most vulnerable.

When we work on actions to address the impacts of climate change, we need to apply equity and inclusion principles to ensure we do not leave anyone behind.

Climate change impacts on tangata whenua will vary across the whenua, but it is likely that the impacts will be disproportionate.

Climate change could have significant cultural impacts on iwi, hapū and Māori, potentially damaging marae, taonga species, and key sites for practices like mahinga kai.

Some iwi in the region are already undertaking significant work to understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change.

Find out more about Māori-led research into climate change impacts and opportunities for iwi on the Vision Mātauranga pages led by the Deep South Challenge.

Climate change is an intergenerational threat, and one of the major voices expressing their concern about the future they will inherit is our youth.

If we don’t start acting with urgency, we will be leaving a drastically different world to our young people.

We have an opportunity to come together, across generations, and support the transition to a low carbon and climate-resilient future that protects future generations from financial and environmental burdens of climate change.